John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs

Trump as the Reverse Nixon: Can China and Russia Be Separated?

This paper explores the extent to which the foreign policy agenda of a potential second Trump administration might be regarded as a modern analogue to the geopolitical strategy of the Nixon era. A central focus is its stated objective of undermining the strategic alignment between China and Russia. The analysis is structured in two parts. First, it reconstructs the historical logic and enabling conditions of Nixon's diplomatic realignment. Second, it examines the structural constraints and competing interests that continue to shape the Sino-Russian relationship. Despite enduring elements of mistrust and asymmetry between the two powers, the geopolitical and economic structures underpinning their cooperation suggest that the full realization of a “reverse Nixon” strategy is unlikely to materialize under current international conditions. Rather than seeking a complete rupture, Washington appears to aim for a partial strategic distancing of Moscow from Beijing, positioning Russia as a semi-autonomous geopolitical actor within a multipolar world order. This recalibration would align with the broader strategic objectives of the Trump administration.

Author: Eszterhai Viktor

Full paper: 2025/3.

The Trump Administration’s Tariff Policy

In his second presidential term, Donald Trump has begun to apply tariffs conspicuously. While the essence of the respective presidential authority is about a targeted tariff policy, the almost hard-to-follow Trumpian announcements suggest a broad tariff war. Accordingly, the aim of the analysis is to review the Trump administration's tariff policy, i.e. the views that have driven the recently protectionist-like U.S. trade policy on a confrontational path. It does not intend to describe the international economic and political consequences of the Trump tariffs (which are unforeseeable), but to outline the causes, objectives and types of protective and punitive tariffs, particularly regarding Europe.

Author: Csizmazia Gábor 

Full paper: 2025/2.

The Impact of Trump 2.0 on Europe’s Position in the Transforming World Order

The initial measures and statements of Donald Trump’s presidency signal the emergence of a new American foreign policy, which stands in stark contrast to previous administrations, particularly the Biden administration. This analysis examines the key characteristics of Trump’s foreign policy shift, with a special focus on comparisons with the Biden administration’s approach. The objective of this paper is to explore the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on the global order, with particular emphasis on the European Union’s position and room for maneuver.

Authors: Csizmazia Gábor - Eszterhai Viktor - Tárnok Balázs

Full paper: 2025/1.