The John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs discusses the most important issues related to the transformation of the global political and economic order. The series aims to contribute to the discourse on the changing world order through scientifically rigorous analyses and to shed light on the dynamics of international relations. The analyses examine great power competition, the transformation of global political structures, and the foreign policies of key actors shaping the 21st-century geopolitical landscape.

The analyses are jointly edited by the America Research Program and the China and Indo-Pacific Region Research Program, both of which operate under the John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics. The authors of the analyses are primarily the researchers of the Institute and members of its research groups, but external experts may also participate, provided they adhere to the academic requirements.The analyses are available in both English and Hungarian and aim to offer valuable and useful insights into the changing world order for the academic community, policymakers, and the wider public.

Publisher:

John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics

Eötvös József Research Centre

Ludovika University of Public Service

Editors: Gábor Csizmazia, Viktor Eszterhai, Balázs Tárnok

Publisher's contact information:

1441 Budapest, P.O. Box 60.

Address: 1083 Budapest, Ludovika tér 2.

Tel: +36 1 432-9000

Email: jli@uni-nke.hu

Analyses:

Tibor Glant – Gábor Csizmazia: First 100 days of Donald Trump's second presidency

The analysis covers the first 100 days of Donald J. Trump’s second term as president. It focuses mainly on how he has organized his government, what he has and has not delivered on his campaign promises, what his preferences are, how he has shaped US domestic and foreign policy, and how this has been received by American society and international public opinion.

Full paper: 2025/5.

Author: Gábor Csizmazia

A strategic shift or just a return to pragmatism?

In recent weeks, the relationship between the European Union and China has gained new momentum due to increasing trade tensions and the impact of U.S. tariff measures. Following a long period of stable economic partnership, relations have reached a significant low point since 2020, but recent developments – such as high-level diplomatic consultations and industry negotiations – suggest the possibility of normalization. The analysis seeks to answer the question of whether these events are signs of a genuine strategic shift in EU foreign policy or merely indications of a return to pragmatic cooperation. The study, by weighing the arguments and counterarguments, concludes that the current détente is not a sign of a comprehensive strategic shift, but rather a pragmatic response to the current geopolitical and economic pressures.

Full paper: 2025/4.

Author: Viktor Eszterhai - Zoltán Vörös

Trump as the Reverse Nixon: Can China and Russia Be Separated?

This paper explores the extent to which the foreign policy agenda of a potential second Trump administration might be regarded as a modern analogue to the geopolitical strategy of the Nixon era. A central focus is its stated objective of undermining the strategic alignment between China and Russia. The analysis is structured in two parts. First, it reconstructs the historical logic and enabling conditions of Nixon's diplomatic realignment. Second, it examines the structural constraints and competing interests that continue to shape the Sino-Russian relationship. Despite enduring elements of mistrust and asymmetry between the two powers, the geopolitical and economic structures underpinning their cooperation suggest that the full realization of a “reverse Nixon” strategy is unlikely to materialize under current international conditions. Rather than seeking a complete rupture, Washington appears to aim for a partial strategic distancing of Moscow from Beijing, positioning Russia as a semi-autonomous geopolitical actor within a multipolar world order. This recalibration would align with the broader strategic objectives of the Trump administration.

Author: Viktor Eszterhai

Full paper: 2025/3.

The Trump Administration’s Tariff Policy

In his second presidential term, Donald Trump has begun to apply tariffs conspicuously. While the essence of the respective presidential authority is about a targeted tariff policy, the almost hard-to-follow Trumpian announcements suggest a broad tariff war. Accordingly, the aim of the analysis is to review the Trump administration's tariff policy, i.e. the views that have driven the recently protectionist-like U.S. trade policy on a confrontational path. It does not intend to describe the international economic and political consequences of the Trump tariffs (which are unforeseeable), but to outline the causes, objectives and types of protective and punitive tariffs, particularly regarding Europe.

Author: Gábor Csizmazia

Full paper: 2025/2.

The Impact of Trump 2.0 on Europe’s Position in the Transforming World Order

The initial measures and statements of Donald Trump’s presidency signal the emergence of a new American foreign policy, which stands in stark contrast to previous administrations, particularly the Biden administration. This analysis examines the key characteristics of Trump’s foreign policy shift, with a special focus on comparisons with the Biden administration’s approach. The objective of this paper is to explore the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on the global order, with particular emphasis on the European Union’s position and room for maneuver.

Authors: Gábor Csizmazia - Viktor Eszterhai - Balázs Tárnok

Full paper: 2025/1.