We are pleased to present the 7th issue of 2026 of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2026/7. Prabowo Subianto’s Foreign Policy: Continuity or a Shift in Indonesia’s “Free and Active” Foreign Policy?
Key insights from this analysis include:
- Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy does not represent a departure from the „bebas dan aktif” (free and active) doctrine. Rather, it complements the economically oriented diplomacy of the Jokowi era with more active geopolitical and security engagement.
- Strategic autonomy is pursued through a policy of multi-alignment: Indonesia is simultaneously deepening its relations with China, the United States, Russia, and other partners while avoiding alignment with any single great-power bloc.
- Indonesia’s BRICS membership and its simultaneous pursuit of OECD accession demonstrate Jakarta’s intention to strengthen its role both within the Global South and within the Western-dominated international economic institutional framework.
- Foreign policy is directly linked to the objectives of Asta Cita: partnerships with China, the United States, Türkiye, India, and other countries are intended to strengthen domestic energy and defence capabilities, enhance security of supply, diversify external dependencies, and promote technological development.
- Indonesia’s expanding global engagement may contribute to the relative deprioritisation of ASEAN, while the growing role of personal presidential diplomacy may carry the risk of greater centralisation in foreign policy decision-making.
- Prabowo’s foreign policy therefore represents not a fundamental shiftin direction, but rather a reinterpretation of Indonesia’s traditional strategic autonomy—one that offers greater room for manoeuvre internationally while requiring increasingly complex balancing among the major powers.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.