The John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs discusses the most important issues related to the transformation of the global political and economic order. The series aims to contribute to the discourse on the changing world order through scientifically rigorous analyses and to shed light on the dynamics of international relations. The analyses examine great power competition, the transformation of global political structures, and the foreign policies of key actors shaping the 21st-century geopolitical landscape.

The analyses are jointly edited by the America Research Program and the China and Indo-Pacific Region Research Program, both of which operate under the John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics. The authors of the analyses are primarily the researchers of the Institute and members of its research groups, but external experts may also participate, provided they adhere to the academic requirements.The analyses are available in both English and Hungarian and aim to offer valuable and useful insights into the changing world order for the academic community, policymakers, and the wider public.

Publisher:

John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics

Eötvös József Research Centre

Ludovika University of Public Service

ISSN: 3094-1148
 

Editors: Gábor Csizmazia, Viktor Eszterhai, Balázs Tárnok

Publisher's contact information:

1441 Budapest, P.O. Box 60.

Address: 1083 Budapest, Ludovika tér 2.

Tel: +36 1 432-9000

Email: jli@uni-nke.hu

Analyses:

2026/2.  The Lithium Triangle and the Reordering of Global Power in the Post-Combustion Age

The Lithium Triangle of Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia has emerged as a key arena in the reordering of global power in the post-combustion age, as control over lithium value chains becomes central to the energy transition and industrial competition. Far from a peripheral resource zone, the Triangle holds over half of the world’s identified lithium reserves and lies at the intersection of U.S.–China rivalry, technological dependence, and competing models of sovereignty. This paper argues that lithium geopolitics is driven less by access to raw materials than by control over processing capacity, technological standards, and downstream integration. While the United States emphasizes diversification and supply-chain resilience and China advances vertically integrated, state-backed industrial ecosystems, producer states follow divergent paths: Argentina’s openness enables access but limits coordination, Chile’s managed hybrid model enhances leverage through regulation, and Bolivia’s state-centric approach has produced technological dependence, particularly on China. The analysis concludes that the Triangle’s future hinges on whether producer states can convert indispensability into strategic autonomy, making the region a test case for how power and sovereignty will be reshaped in the post-carbon global order.

Full paper 2026/2.

Author:Brian H. Neira Fajardo

2026/1. The effect of voter realignment on US foreign policy

Many scholars contend that U.S. foreign policy reached a critical juncture with Donald Trump’s election to the presidency in 2024. His second term demonstrates significant departures from his first, with foreign policy being no exception. During this administration, Trump has more assertively articulated and implemented the “America First” doctrine, both rhetorically and in practice. This analysis seeks to explore how the electoral realignment observed in recent years has shaped Trump’s foreign policy orientation and to assess its potential implications for global politics in the near future.

Full paper: 2026/1.

Author: Yaro Patrice