We are pleased to present the 5th issue of 2026 of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2026/5.China in a dilemma: On the brink of unilateral military interventions?
Key insights from this analysis include:
- In recent decades, China has deliberately built its international presence on the principle of non-intervention, as well as the primacy of economic and trade relations, and has sought to define itself as a responsible great power.
- Chinese foreign policy practice, however, can no longer be interpreted as completely rigid non-intervention, as Beijing has increasingly participated in multilateral missions, evacuation operations, and global security commitments in recent years.
- The transforming world order, the relative weakening of rule-based institutions, and the transactional turn in Washington's foreign policy have created a new situation for China. In this environment, the limitations of the Chinese approach, which is based solely on economic and trade presence, are becoming increasingly apparent, especially when other actors make military capabilities part of the deal.
- The recent crises suggest that Beijing may be forced to take action if it wants to continue protecting its global economic, trade, and raw material interests.
- The main assertion of the analysis is not that China is necessarily preparing for unilateral military intervention, but that the credible demonstration of unilateral capabilities may become a strategic necessity for it in the future.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.