We are pleased to present the 4th issue of 2026 of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs is out: 2026/4. China–United States Summit:Frameworks for Negotiations and Managed Rivalry
Key insights from this analysis include:
- The Xi-Trump summit in Beijing did not create a new G2 order or a comprehensive great power deal, but it did contribute to the minimal strategic stabilization of U.S.-China relations.
- The economic and strategic parity between the parties, as well as domestic political pressures, have pushed both Washington and Beijing toward controlled competition and de-escalation.
- The meeting mainly yielded transactional economic results, while no significant breakthroughs were made on the most important geopolitical issues – technological restrictions, Taiwan, military crisis management.
- The most important outcome of the summit was the emergence of the principles of "constructive strategic stability," which could become the operational framework for managed U.S.-China rivalry in the future.
- The meeting confirmed that Washington and Beijing continue to shape their relations primarily along their own economic and strategic interests, while neither party is interested in the uncontrolled escalation of open confrontation.
- The emerging managed competition may increase the predictability of the global system, but it may also narrow the maneuvering space of middle powers and allied states in the bargaining processes between the two great powers.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.