We are pleased to present the 1th issue of 2026 of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2026/2. The Lithium Triangle and the Reordering of Global Power in the Post-Combustion Age
Key insights from this analysis include:
- The Lithium Triangle (Argentina, Chile, Bolivia) holds over half of the world’s identified lithium reserves, making it a structural pivot of the global energy transition rather than a peripheral resource zone.
- Lithium geopolitics is driven by control over value chains, processing capacity, and technological standards, not merely by access to raw materials
- U.S.–China rivalry in the Triangle reflects competing models: U.S. diversification and risk management versus China’s vertically integrated, state-backed industrial ecosystems.
- Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia represent three distinct sovereignty models, producing divergent strategic outcomes — openness, managed leverage, and technological dependence.
- China’s influence stems from systemic integration rather than ownership, converting financial and technological asymmetries into long-term structural advantage.
- The Triangle’s future will shape broader global outcomes, serving as a test case for whether producer states can translate critical resources into strategic autonomy in the post-carbon order.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.