We are pleased to present the 14th issue of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2025/14.The expected China (and foreign) policy of the new Japanese Prime Minister
Key insights from this analysis include:
- In the China-Japan relationship, periods of rapprochement and estrangement have alternated depending on global political and economic conditions – alongside past disagreements and nationalist aspirations that have always been in the background, as well as global geopolitical interests and rivalries.
- We can expect the newly elected Sanae Takaichi to continue Abe's work and Abenomics, but it remains to be seen how effective and strong a leader she will be in this more fragile political situation and amidst economic problems.
- Takaichi has been critical of China throughout her career, approaching the relationship between the two sides primarily on ideological grounds, not only reviving past disputes but also bringing up the issue of Taiwan.
- Japan and the Takaichi government may find a supporter in Trump for this critical stance, but trade and economic interests require a much more balanced, pragmatic China policy, which could also be important for Tokyo due to the unpredictability of American foreign and economic policy moves.
- The rivalry between the two sides will manifest not only in the relationship between the two countries but also at the regional, Indo-Pacific level.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.