We are pleased to present the 12th issue of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2025/12. Drone War, Trade War, Illusory Alternatives: Lessons from 2025 about India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy
Key insights from this analysis include:
- The early 2020s’ favourable geopolitical environment brought about some remarkable successes in India’s foreign policy; yet these achievements stemmed less from deliberate strategy than from external circumstances.
- India’s multi-aligned policy faced its first genuine stress test in 2025, as the United States turned against New Delhi. India’s assumption that shared strategic interests and strong personal ties with Washington’s leadership would guarantee it a privileged place in U.S. Asia policy rested on a misreading of the second Trump era’s personality-driven diplomacy.
- During the spring 2025 Indo-Pak conflict, New Delhi received only limited support—mirroring its own traditionally limited commitments to its partners. To avoid a repeat, India must decide whether it is willing to pay a comparable price for tangible U.S. and European assistance.
- While frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), along with India’s bilateral ties with China and Russia, may offer short-term manoeuvring space, they do not constitute realistic alternatives to strategic partnership with the United States.
- In the long term, India remains the weakest member of the great power club—more vulnerable than well-prepared for a transactional, multipolar order
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.