We are pleased to present the 9th issue of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2025/11 Navigating LegSea Code of Conductal Entanglements: ASEAN and the South China
Key insights from this analysis include:
- The sovereignty and maritime jurisdictional disputes in the South China Sea rank among the twenty-first century’s most complex and sensitive security challenges, with far-reaching global implications.
- Since 2014, negotiations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China on a regional Code of Conduct (COC) have sought to establish a mutually agreed, normative and institutionalised framework that can serve as a guarantee of peaceful coexistence, stability and cooperation.
- The prospects for adopting the COC, however, are increasingly uncertain, while the absence of legal frameworks heightens the risk of accidental incidents and armed escalation.
- It is vital for ASEAN to advance solutions that are rapidly implementable and enforceable, while simultaneously preparing for longer-term legal settlement.
- The analysis concludes that a politically framed COC, coupled with independent monitoring, can consolidate soft-law norms, shape state practice, and lay the groundwork for eventual binding arrangements.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.