We are pleased to present the 9th issue of John Lukacs Analyses on Global Affairs: 2025/10 Southeast Asia at the Crossroads of Major Power Interests. The Example of the Philippines in Light of Marcos' Foreign Policy
Key insights from this analysis include:
- Like other Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines is caught in a balance between the United States and China. In the area of security, US protection is indispensable, while in the area of the economy there is no alternative to partnership with China.
- After former President Rodrigo Duterte's opening towards China did not bring the desired results, Marcos committed to a closer partnership with Washington as part of his "independent" foreign policy.
- The Trump administration's policy has also emphasised the risks of working with the US, but Marcos is walking a fine line, trying to combine elements of previous foreign policy strategies that have proven successful.
- China is playing a wait-and-see game, and is not interested in making concessions to Manila while maintaining its current economic position.
- Marcos clearly wants to strengthen the partnership with the USA's regional allies, and thus reduce his dependence on the two world powers.
- Marcos' room for manoeuvre is also considerably limited by domestic politics, as the rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte families in the run-up to the 2028 presidential elections is directly influencing the cabinet's foreign policy decisions.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.