LUDOVIKA UNIVERSITY OF PUBLIC SERVICE
John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics

John Lukacs Analyses in Strategic and Defense Studies

‘Analyses in Strategic and Defense Studies’ are periodical defense policy papers reflecting the independent opinion of the authors only.

The Research Program for Strategy and Defense within the John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics of the Eötvös József Research Center at Ludovika University of Public Service carries out research in strategic studies and defense policy. The views and opinion expressed in its publications do not necessarily reflect those of the institution or the editors but of the authors only. The data and analysis included in these publications serve information purposes.

 

Publisher:

John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics

Eötvös József Research Centre

Ludovika University of Public Service

 

Editor:Tamás Csiki Varga

 

Publisher's contact information:

Contact:

1581 Budapest, P.O. Box. 15.

Phone: 00 36 1 432-90-92

E-mail: jli@uni-nke.hu

 

Venezuela: Resilience, Risk, and the Aftermath of U.S. Intervention

Through ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’ U.S. special operations forces and law enforcement agencies captured the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife in Caracas and took them to custody in the United States upon charges of ‘narco-terrorism’ conspiracy and drug trafficking, among other criminal activities. Following more than a decade of political repression and economic downturn, Venezuela concluded 2025 amid profound institutional erosion, an entrenched authoritarian governing structure, and a humanitarian emergency with significant regional implications. Despite severe economic contraction and widespread social deprivation, the regime under Nicolás Maduro had so far demonstrated notable resilience driven by elite cohesion, an effective domestic security apparatus, and external support from strategic partners. Meanwhile, U.S. policy has increasingly been driven by migration pressures, narco-trafficking concerns, and renewed strategic assertiveness under the Trump administration, all of which elevated Venezuela’s relevance in Washington’s security agenda. Within this context, understanding the country’s structural realities is essential to measure the balance of power, anticipate potential stabilization following Maduro’s removal on January 3, 2026, and evaluate the strategic options available both to the Venezuelan establishment and to the Trump administration. The current analysis assesses the aftermath of the American intervention and its international consequences. Within this context, an understanding of Venezuela’s structural realities is essential to assess the balance of power, anticipate potential stabilization scenarios following Maduro’s removal on January 3, 2026, and evaluate the strategic options available both to the Venezuelan establishment and to the Trump administration.

Full paper: 2026/2.

Authors: Brian Heriberto Neira Fajardo, Csiki Varga Tamás

 

We are pleased to present the 21th issue of John Lukacs Analyses in Strategic and Defense Studies titled "Thirty Years After – A Balance Sheet for Dayton"

December 14 marks the 30th anniversary of the official signing ceremony of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) in Paris. This analysis provides a brief overview of the historical significance of the peace agreement, which concluded the most brutal ethnic conflict following the disintegration of Yugoslavia and led to the longest international state-building project in modern history.

Full paper: 2025/21

Author:László Márkusz

 

 

We are pleased to present the 20th issue of John Lukacs Analyses in Strategic and Defense Studies titled ‘The State of the Czech Defence Industry".

The Czech defence industry has long been a cornerstone of the national economy, rooted in the industrial traditions of Czechoslovakia and shaped by successive geopolitical transformations. Since 2022, Russia’s war against Ukraine has triggered an unprecedented resurgence in Czech defence production. The Czech National Security Advisor has even identified the defence sector as a potential long-term driver of growth, strategically important for the next two decades. This analysis provides an overview and assessment of the functioning and development of Czech defense industry, particularly reflecting upon the effects of the 2022 escalation of the Russia – Ukraine war.

Full paper: 2025/20.

Author: Zdenek Rod

 

 

‘The Changing European Security Architecture – The Czech View’

  • The Russian invasion of Ukraine has compelled Europe, including the Czech Republic, to reorient its security and defence posture towards the demands of high-intensity conflict. Since 2022, Prague has adopted new strategic documents, increased defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP, launched substantial procurement programmes, and assumed a leadership role in allied support for Ukraine, most notably through the international ammunition initiative.
  • Nonetheless, Czech defence policy continues to grapple with significant challenges: political polarisation over military investments, limited public support for higher defence expenditure, persistent recruitment difficulties, and enduring infrastructure and interoperability shortfalls. NATO’s recent commitment to raise spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 amplifies these pressures, requiring structural reform and more extensive societal engagement.
  • The Czech case highlights both the potential and the vulnerability of small states within European security: capable of exercising leadership through targeted initiatives, yet constrained by domestic political, social, and fiscal factors that threaten to erode long-term strategic ambition.

Full paper: 2025/17.

Author: Zdenek Rod