We are pleased to present the 2th issue of 2026 of John Lukacs Analyses in Strategic and Defense Studies titled "Venezuela: Resilience, Risk, and the Aftermath of U.S. Intervention"
- On January 3, 2026 the U.S. executed a swift decapitating move to the Venezuelan regime by capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in Caracas, and taking them to the U.S. where they are facing federal charges for ‘narco-terrorism’, among others.
- Venezuelan Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez took over political leadership – thus the current situation does not amount to any regime change, and does not show signs of a democratic transition either.
- U.S. strategy aims at realizing transition in three stages: sustaining stability in the immediate aftermath of removing Maduro and securing economic control over oil and government revenues; opening up the Venezuelan economy to foreign investment and kick-starting economic development; and transitioning to a more representative democratic government.
- Curbing Chinese, Russian and Iranian economic, military etc. penetration and influence in Venezuela is also a high-stake strategic U.S. interest.
- The U.S. maintains the military posture in the wider region necessary to carry out further limited strikes if its demands are unfulfilled, but these forces are inadequate for a major invasion. Currently there is no U.S. plan to attempt an ‘Iraq-style’ dismantling and transformation of the Venezuelan political and security apparatus.
- A major U.S. invasion would face serious challenges trying to topple the Venezuelan regime through military power only, securing control over the country and its people, and stabilizing a post-intervention situation because the Venezuelan security apparatus is dispersed, having a strong grip through infiltrating all institutions and localities, also relying on a large number of paramilitary organisations throughout the country.
You can read the full paper on the John Lukacs Institute website.
Authors: Brian Heriberto Neira Fajardo, Csiki Varga Tamás